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辽宁省翻译公司关键字：In the first half, China's trade surplus is only $ 4.5 billion, to attract new direct investment is only $ 30.3 billion, according to the size of previous years, the total foreign capital in place part will be spent, about 30%, foreign exchange reserves that can be formed during the first half only around $ 25 billion, but China's foreign exchange reserves increased by $ 60.1 billion, even count there are about $ 10 billion foreign exchange reserves, investment income, more than a $ 25 billion, is currently the most argumentative speculation of RMB into China appreciation of the "hot money." A large number of foreign investment into China, in China's current "mandatory settlement system", to force China's central bank to put a lot of foreign exchange in the form of base money, according to the study, China's basic currency of the "multiplier" is about 2? 5, there are an estimated is 3? 5, Take 2? 5 calculated from the foreign exchange channel in the first half put the money in broad money form the basis of the proportion has been as high as 60%, while the average 90 years less than 30%. If you press 3? 5 of the multiplier, the broad money this year, all the incremental acquisition of foreign exchange formed by the central bank, therefore, the current foreign exchange has become the main channel of base money, which is an unprecedented thing. This year, the central bank to hedge foreign exchange impact of base money, the money for the frequent repurchase operations, so that investment and the treasury empty hands all the volumes, they have to put in to create a model of central bank bills, only in July month invested 50 billion yuan of central bank bills, but the ferocious influx of foreign investors, or for the acquisition of foreign exchange is difficult to curb the momentum of base money
More foreign exchange reserves have been a good thing, because all the resources on behalf of foreign exchange supply, foreign exchange reserves and for the base money, even in a period of time will result in excessive monetary growth, the formation of inflationary pressures, but as long as you can use the foreign exchange hedging this pressure. The risk of foreign exchange reserves of foreign exchange acquired is only whether the depreciation of U.S. dollar as China's foreign exchange reserves mainly concentrated on all the risk on the U.S. dollar.
As already mentioned, into the contemporary American economy has long been inadequate supply of forms, has been marked by a 20-year trade deficit, and growing, so in theory, obtained by exports to the U.S. dollar, has not been from the United States equivalent goods, so the dollar is a bubble. And if the dollar bubble, China's central bank creating money to buy their U.S. dollars, corresponding with the acquisition of U.S. dollars of RMB is the bubble, the bubble is a bubble of the dollar leads to the yuan. The current bubble bubble dollar against the yuan is not a direct impact, because the U.S. dollar currency hegemony, China has been unable to get from the U.S. dollar equivalent of the thing, but other countries can get them, because other countries to accept U.S. dollars But if the dollar collapse of the bubble, the dollar bubble will lead to real RMB bubble, because other countries will no longer accept U.S. dollars, U.S. dollars for the acquisition of the Chinese RMB multiple lost turn into real possibilities. The U.S. dollar asset bubble and the collapse of the bubble has a real prospect, once come this far, China's inflation will be difficult to suppress, the international financial and monetary crisis on China's economic专业翻译公司服务最好的 stability will have a strong impact, which we now things must be highly vigilant, be prepared response.
Third, turbulence and stability
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